The Quarterback Dominance: Why Teams Bet Big at Pick One
Look at the last decade. Since 2013, 9 of the 11 first overall picks have been quarterbacks. Bryce Young in 2023. Travon Walker? No—that was an outlier. Anthony Richardson? Not him either. But Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston. The list reads like a fantasy football panic draft. Quarterbacks occupy a unique tier of capital investment—not just in draft positioning, but in salary. The No. 1 pick in 2024 received a fully guaranteed contract worth $37.6 million in the first two years. That number isn’t just big. It’s existential. Teams don’t just draft a QB first. They mortgage future cap space, draft capital, and coaching staffs around them.
And that’s before we get into development timelines. It takes, on average, 2.7 years for a first-round QB to become a full-time starter. Some never do. Yet teams keep swinging. Why? Because the reward dwarfs the risk—on paper. A franchise QB can elevate a losing team into playoff contention in 12 months. Patrick Mahomes did it in Year 2. Justin Herbert? Even faster. But for every Mahomes, there’s a JaMarcus Russell. For every Herbert, a Tim Couch. The variance is brutal. Still, the league’s shift toward pass-heavy offenses—driven by analytics and rule changes favoring quarterbacks—has made the position non-negotiable at the top. In 2023, teams averaged 254.8 passing yards per game, up from 198.2 in 2003. That changes everything.
A Historical Snapshot: When Was the Last Time a Non-QB Went First?
The most recent non-quarterback taken first overall was Travon Walker, a defensive end, by Jacksonville in 2022. Before that? Myles Garrett in 2017. Saquon Barkley in 2018. Jadeveon Clowney in 2014. Even then, each came amid heavy debate. Was Walker worth the pick over Malik Willis? Was Barkley worth it over Sam Darnold? The skepticism follows non-QBs like a shadow. It's rare, but not unheard of, for a non-QB to open the draft. Between 1990 and 2010, 13 non-quarterbacks were selected first. Since 2013? Just four. The trend is clear. The quarterback bias isn’t fading. It’s accelerating.
Franchise Philosophy and Market Timing
Some teams avoid drafting QBs early. The Steelers famously waited until 2022 to draft one in the first round—Kenny Pickett at No. 20. They’d ridden Ben Roethlisberger for 18 years. The Packers? They traded up for Jordan Love in 2020, but only after years of denial. And yet, look at the Rams. They didn’t draft Jared Goff first overall just to have him—they traded two first-rounders and a second-rounder to move up. That’s how much faith teams place in finding “the guy.” But here’s a twist: sometimes, they’re not even sure he’s ready. Teams draft future QBs knowing they’ll sit for a year—or two. The Panthers took Bryce Young first in 2023 despite having a functional, if unexciting, starter in PJ Walker. Development timelines are longer now. Patience is expected. Or faked.
Offensive Tackle vs. Edge Rusher: The Secondary Power Struggle
When a team doesn’t pick a quarterback first, the battle is usually between offensive tackles and edge rushers. Both are premium positions, but for opposite reasons. One protects the golden goose. The other tries to sack it. The highest-paid non-QB in 2023? Trent Williams, left tackle for the 49ers, averaging $27.6 million per year. Second? T.J. Watt, edge rusher, at $26.5 million. That tells you something. But the draft reflects scarcity. Elite left tackles are harder to find than dominant pass rushers. Why? Because technique, footwork, and film study matter more than raw speed. And you can’t teach instincts.
Take 2021. Penei Sewell, an offensive tackle, went No. 7. Kwity Paye, edge rusher, went No. 21. But in 2020, Mekhi Becton went No. 11—and then missed 28 games over the next three seasons. That’s the risk. Tackles can break down. Rushers can stagnate. Yet teams still reach for them. Since 2000, 14 offensive tackles have been picked in the top five. Edge rushers? 18. The edge (pun intended) goes to pass rushers—but only slightly. And that’s where scheme comes in. A 3-4 defense needs outside linebackers who can drop into coverage. A 4-3 wants pure speed off the ball. So the “best player available” theory often depends on the coach’s playbook.
Why Edge Rushers Are Slightly More Valuable Than Tackles
Because they produce faster. A rookie edge rusher can contribute on third downs immediately—even if he’s not starting. A tackle needs time. He’s blocking elite defenders from Day 1. One misstep, and the QB gets blindsided. The data backs this up: since 2010, top-five edge rushers have recorded an average of 7.2 sacks in Year 1. Top-five tackles? Zero sacks, obviously, but only 3.1 allowed sacks on average—which is solid, but not game-breaking. Plus, edge players often have longer peaks. J.J. Watt had three Defensive Player of the Year awards. No tackle has ever won it. That said, losing a franchise tackle can be catastrophic. Remember when the 49ers played without Trent Williams in 2020? They lost four straight. He missed six games. They barely made the playoffs.
Offensive Tackles: The Silent Engines of Offense
They don’t get MVP votes. They don’t trend on Twitter. But when they’re good, everything hums. When they’re bad, the offense collapses. Protecting the quarterback is more complex than ever. The average pass play in 2023 lasted 2.8 seconds from snap to throw—down from 3.1 in 2010. Less time. Faster decisions. More pressure. A tackle has to react in 0.4 seconds when a defensive end stunts inside. That’s inhuman. And yet, elite ones do it all game. The problem? You can’t measure it in box scores. A great pass block? No stat. A missed assignment? Sack. The asymmetry is brutal. Which explains why teams often undervalue tackles in the draft—until they lose one.
Running Backs and Wide Receivers: The Rare First-Pick Exceptions
Running backs almost never go first. The last? Saquon Barkley in 2018. Before that, Ezekiel Elliott in 2016. Trent Richardson in 2012. Look at that list. Only one—Barkley—has lived up to the billing. Elliott regressed after Year 3. Richardson was traded after 11 games. The average first-round RB lasts just 3.2 years as a full-time starter. The league has shifted to a “running back by committee” model. The Jets used six different ball carriers in 2023 with over 30 attempts. Teams want versatility, not workhorses. And the salary cap reflects it: a top RB makes around $8.5 million per year. A top QB? $45 million.
Wide receivers go earlier, but rarely first. The last to do so was Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. Since then? None. Not Calvin Johnson. Not Julio Jones. Not Ja’Marr Chase. They go high—Chase at No. 5, Justin Jefferson at No. 22—but never the top spot. Why? Because QBs elevate receivers. Not the other way around. A great receiver needs a great quarterback to shine. Jerry Rice had Joe Montana and Steve Young. Larry Fitzgerald had Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer. Without them? Good, but not legendary. And that’s the core issue: receivers are dependent assets.
Positional Value vs. Talent Availability: The Real Draft Dilemma
Here’s where conventional wisdom gets flipped. Most analysts say “best player available.” But in reality, teams draft for need. The 2023 Panthers didn’t pick Bryce Young because he was objectively better than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They picked him because they had no QB. The 2021 Jaguars took Trevor Lawrence not because they lacked receivers (they didn’t), but because Lawrence was the only QB in the class worth a top pick. And that’s the rub. Talent matters. But fit matters more. A perfect player for the wrong team is a waste. A good player for the right system? Gold.
And then there’s the “boom or bust” factor. Quarterbacks have the highest ceiling and the lowest floor. Edge rushers? More predictable. Guards? Even more so. But no one drafts guards first. Why? Because they don’t move the needle. An elite guard might improve a line by 10%. A franchise QB can double a team’s win total. The asymmetry of impact is what drives the draft order. But—and this is key—not every team needs a QB. The Eagles took a QB in 2023 (Jalen Hurts was already there). They took Nolan Smith, an edge rusher, at No. 30. Smart? We’ll see. But they didn’t reach. They filled a need without overdrafting.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has a Defensive Player Ever Been Drafted First Overall?
Yes—multiple times. The most recent was Travon Walker in 2022. Before that, Myles Garrett in 2017, Jadeveon Clowney in 2014, and Orlando Pace in 1997 (though Pace was an offensive tackle, not defensive). Defensive players go early, but rarely first. Only 12 defensive players have been picked No. 1 since 1990. That’s one every 2.7 years. The last defensive back? Eric Fisher? No—he was an offensive tackle. The last DB taken first was Ki-Jana Carter? No—running back. Actually, it was Orlando Pace again. The last true defensive back? Steve Emtman in 1992—technically a defensive tackle. The last cornerback? Bruce Davis in 1981. We’re far from it now.
Do Teams Regret Drafting Quarterbacks First?
Sometimes. The 2018 draft saw three QBs go in the top 10: Baker Mayfield (No. 1), Sam Darnold (No. 3), Josh Rosen (No. 10). Two are out of the league. One is a backup. That class was a disaster. Yet the Browns stuck with Mayfield for three years before moving on. The Jets gave up two first-rounders for Darnold. Then cut him after three seasons. The cost isn’t just financial. It’s opportunity cost. Those picks could’ve built a defense. Or an offensive line. Or both. But because the QB is seen as the centerpiece, teams accept the risk.
How Often Does the First Overall Pick Succeed?
About 60% of first overall picks become starters for at least three seasons. For quarterbacks, it drops to 54%. For edge rushers? 61%. For tackles? 68%. Oddly, the most reliable picks aren’t QBs—they’re linemen. But teams don’t draft for reliability. They draft for transformation. And that’s exactly where emotion overrides logic.
The Bottom Line
The quarterback almost always gets drafted first. Not because it’s the safest pick. Not because it’s always right. But because one great QB can change a franchise. Can you win without one? Yes—see the 2015 Broncos. But can you sustain success? Not really. We’ve seen it across eras. The 1970s Steelers had Terry Bradshaw. The 1990s Cowboys had Troy Aikman. The 2010s Patriots had Tom Brady. The 2020s Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. The pattern is undeniable. I find this overrated? No. It’s real. But the method—reaching, overdrafting, ignoring value—is where teams fail. Drafting a QB first isn’t the problem. Drafting the wrong one is. And honestly, it is unclear if the current model is sustainable. Data is still lacking on long-term QB development. Experts disagree on early evaluation metrics. But one thing’s certain: until the game changes, the quarterback will keep hearing his name called first.